Prediction‑market enthusiasts often promote their platforms as gauges of public sentiment, sometimes calling them “truth machines” that can out‑perform polls. In 2024, for instance, Kalshi’s forecasts beat many traditional pollsters in the U.S. presidential race. Yet the trading data can also reveal puzzling patterns.
On Polymarket’s offshore site, two global election markets together generated more than $600 million in trading volume, a figure far above what most political markets see. The bulk of that activity involved buying and selling contracts linked to unlikely candidates who ultimately lost.
In Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party swept the federal elections, securing 438 seats in parliament and positioning Ahmed for another five‑year term, while the nearest rival captured only 13 seats. In typical prediction markets, the amount of money traded usually mirrors the odds of an outcome, with front‑runners drawing the most interest. This election defied that trend. Only about $173,000 was placed on Ahmed’s victory, whereas more than $41 million changed hands on contracts that would make his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, the country’s next leader. In total, the Ethiopian market accounted for over $285 million in trades, almost entirely on candidates who did not win.