Republican operatives are already looking for someone to shoulder the blame if the party suffers heavy losses in the upcoming midterm elections, sources familiar with internal discussions say. Many within the GOP quietly attribute the party’s troubles to former president Donald Trump, arguing that his decision to launch the Iran conflict during an election year has driven up prices and sparked a nationwide voter backlash. “Clearly it’s the president’s fault,” one operative told Inner Loop, though aides say they cannot publicly or privately tell Trump that his own policies may be to blame as they face the prospect of losing the House majority and possibly the Senate.
The early search for a fall guy has landed on James Blair, the deputy chief of staff and political strategist who ran the turnout plan for Trump’s 2024 campaign and returned to oversee the midterm effort. Blair’s strategy included pushing for early redistricting in several states, a move that was expected to deliver roughly ten to fifteen additional House seats for Republicans, assuming the coalition that supported Trump in 2024 would stay engaged through 2026. After Virginia’s top court blocked Democrats from updating their maps, Blair posted on X, “Lord grant me humility.”
Five months later, election forecasters say the gamble has backfired in several districts. The newly drawn map for Florida’s 25th congressional district, just south of Fort Lauderdale, is now rated “Lean Democrat,” prompting the Congressional Leadership Fund to withdraw money from the race. Similar vulnerabilities have emerged in Texas, where seats that were once considered safe for the GOP have become competitive; the Cook Political Report now lists Texas’s 15th district as a “toss‑up.”
Supporters of Blair argue that the criticism is unfair, noting that he could not have anticipated the fallout from the Iran war or the scandals involving Trump’s aides that have disrupted his plans. He still enjoys the confidence of Trump and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, and his recent trips on Air Force One to two rallies suggest any eventual blame may be largely symbolic. When Blair left the White House earlier this year to run the midterm strategy from outside the administration, Trump described the move as temporary and said Blair would return after the election.
In response to the story, Blair released a statement saying, “The President, our partners in the House and Senate, and I remain focused on winning in November. All Republicans should be spending themselves equally in our worthy cause.” White House spokesperson Danielle Alvarez added, “The anonymous sources peddling this nonsense are self‑serving opportunists focused on themselves. We’re focused on the President and the American people.”
Sources close to Wiles say that if she departs after the midterms, it will be entirely her decision, despite reports that she has faced criticism. Aides acknowledge that much of the internal blame‑shifting is preemptive; expectations are so low that a modest Republican showing, such as holding the Senate, could cast Blair as a “savior.” Yet because he publicly owned the House midterm strategy, insiders warn that he may become the convenient target if the party’s fortunes do not improve.
This report appears in Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter.