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Bill Gates warns of two decades of turbulent AI disruption

By CodeRao Tech Desk · October 30, 2026 · 2 min read
Bill Gates warns of two decades of turbulent AI disruption

Bill Gates, the Microsoft co‑founder and former chief executive who now chairs the Gates Foundation, has been traveling the country since publishing an essay in late August titled “The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical.” In that piece he warned that “even under the best circumstances, the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history.”

Since the essay’s release Gates has called artificial intelligence “the most dangerous thing that humans have ever gone near” and said it “makes nuclear weapons look like nothing.” He has also expressed disappointment with the current response from the White House and the lack of coordinated action across the AI industry.

In a recent conversation with The Verge, Gates clarified his stance. He reiterated his belief that AI can be a force for good, recalling a previous remark that “I believe AI is a beneficial thing, we just need to shape it in the right way.” He added that the time to shape it is now, and that the pace of development has outstripped the adequacy of policy and safety measures.

Gates said the speed of progress over the past year is “really quite amazing,” pointing to breakthroughs that let AI write code, discover cybersecurity flaws, reason about biology, interact socially with children and adults, and potentially reshape the job market. He argued that these capabilities are already present in a mix of open‑source and proprietary models, and that the risk comes not from a single product but from the whole ecosystem.

He warned that models lacking safeguards pose an immediate danger, while even well‑controlled state‑of‑the‑art systems could become problematic over a longer horizon. “The big near‑term risk really comes from models without safeguards,” he said, noting that maintaining those safeguards is essential for preventing misuse by cyber attackers or bioterrorists.

When asked about who should enforce safety standards, Gates suggested that market dynamics might push users toward companies perceived as safer, but he cautioned that reliance on brand trust alone is insufficient. He emphasized the need for robust technical solutions that can be applied to both closed‑source and open‑source models.

Looking ahead, Gates believes society must brace for roughly twenty years of AI‑driven disruption. He warned that the period could be “painful enough to split society” between those who embrace the technological frontier and those who reject it. The conversation also touched on labor impacts, the growing nihilism among younger generations toward technology, and the reasons for optimism about the future.

In summary, Gates remains convinced that AI holds tremendous promise, but he stresses that without swift, coordinated action to embed safety measures, the negative consequences could outweigh the benefits for years to come.